Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.582564 2.071776 2.724854 3.680723 5.079372e+00 7.109604 10.394357
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.032745 1.527030 2.299327 3.657555 6.135021e+00 10.803474 21.266882
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.791354 1.303045 2.226045 4.166892 8.628025e+00 19.982080 59.002454
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.614816 1.110541 2.126254 4.653632 1.200412e+01 38.286904 198.434923
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.495572 0.973879 2.078259 5.326446 1.749673e+01 83.341007 1058.187162
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.402434 0.851556 2.006535 5.991022 2.541157e+01 198.468610 12493.571209
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.310580 0.693241 1.758905 5.919568 3.121206e+01 399.772465 457888.654347
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.238894 0.555821 1.495850 5.559055 3.555827e+01 761.204444 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.198138 0.483438 1.394203 5.847214 4.819548e+01 2342.033336 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.174393 0.448827 1.401931 6.804595 7.854453e+01 17035.322167 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.157647 0.428242 1.453694 8.283560 1.448766e+02 912316.039273 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.137496 0.388663 1.405070 9.093687 2.305732e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.114178 0.331891 1.255118 8.928166 3.068967e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.094265 0.279786 1.094824 8.382744 3.725575e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.083707 0.257523 1.069675 9.354986 6.972465e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.074328 0.236056 1.034854 10.257917 1.344437e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.067150 0.220414 1.023070 11.643736 3.198704e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.060660 0.205058 1.002487 13.005115 8.455545e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.052690 0.180584 0.904808 12.512289 1.340879e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045363 0.156625 0.795266 11.390137 1.653000e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.040922 0.143989 0.756622 11.884378 4.349529e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038354 0.138870 0.769180 13.992818 4.156222e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036538 0.136593 0.803301 17.414575 1.850614e+08 NaN NaN